Central Bank of Egypt expects real GDP growth to accelerate faster than previously estimated, forecasting average expansion of 5.1% in fiscal year 2025/2026 and 5.5% in 2026/2027, according to its Q4 2025 Monetary Policy Report. The upward revision is driven by stronger contributions from non-petroleum manufacturing and services, supported by monetary easing and improved real private sector credit growth. The Monetary Policy Committee expects inflation to remain broadly stable in the first quarter of 2026 before resuming a declining path, converging toward the bank’s 7% target range, ±2 percentage points, by Q4 2026 and remaining in single digits thereafter. Annual headline inflation is projected at 12.0–12.5% in 2025/2026 and around 9% in 2026/2027, down from 20.4% in 2024/2025, although the disinflation path may be constrained by fiscal consolidation measures, including energy price increases, and persistent non-food inflation.
